Sitemap - 2016 - Information Equilibrium

Chris Dillow, information equilibrium is the framework you're looking for

Emergent immoral genes

Skidelsky's lazy econ critique

Stocks and k-states, part III

Peak monetary base

Populism

Stocks and k-states, part II

Stocks and $k$-states

Stock-flow consistency is tangential to stock-flow consistent model claims

Saving the scissors

A May 2017 recession?

Chamberlain (1948) vs Smith (1962): non-ideal vs ideal information transfer

Store of value and medium of exchange are incompatible

Why don't you just show us why it's better?

Another IT model success: forecasting [using] exchange rates

Economic theory and male answer syndrome

Causality, Newcomb's paradox, and rational expectations

The scope of introductory economics

The effect of a December 2016 Fed interest rate hike

Integrating out

Prediction market failure?

How do maximum entropy and information equilibrium relate?

Information equilibrium in agent-based models

Exactly. People do not behave in similar or predictable or even stable ways.

Never underestimate the power of abstract mathematics

Inequality and maximum entropy

The surge in the 10-year rate

Coupling things does not make them indistinguishable

Nobody would have predicted

Quick stats refresher: analyzing the 2016 election

Leaning new tricks from an old book

Blackford's information equilibrium model

Information equilibrium and log-linear invariance

One thousand posts

New Keynesian models with money

Defining bubbles in the information transfer framework

A list of unsupported narratives in macroeconomics

Translating among the econ

A list of valid and not so valid complaints about economics

Economics, physics, and data: a response to Blackford

Friedman's effective field theory

Q3 2016 US NGDP

3D visualizations of the interest rate model

Economist shouldn't be used as source for what is "scientific"

Multiple dynamic employment growth equilibria

Parsing the macrohistory database ... for meaning

Parsing the macrohistory database: more principal components

Parsing the macrohistory database: principal components

Parsing the macrohistory database: interest rates

One year ago ...

Forecasting: IT versus all comers

What should we expect from an economic theory?

Forecasting: IT versus DSGE

Influences

Should I use math or just assume convergence of a vague algorithm?

On volume and information

I am not sure Steve Keen understands the arguments against his framework

Price growth (i.e. inflation) state distribution

The monetary base moves

Dynamic unemployment equilibrium (and sunspots)

Keen, chaos, and equilibrium

Sticky "information", i.e. knowledge, and emergence

Invariance under inversion

Defining recessions?

Taking models seriously

Thinking about equilibrium and disequilibrium

On using Taylor expansions in economics

Krugman's Keynesians and information equilibrium

Are maximum entropy models the only possible models with rational expectations?

Basic definitions in information transfer economics (reference post)

Balanced growth, maximum entropy, and partition functions

Spreadsheets really do make mistakes

Of phlogiston and frameworks

Paul Romer on the Volcker disinflation

Macro is not like string theory, part III (Equations!)

Macro is not like string theory, part II (my personal take)

Macro is not like string theory

Supply and demand as a causal entropic force

Channel capacity and rate-distortion in economics

Eurozone unemployment equilibrium

The Kaldor facts

Uber, consumer surplus, and random agents

How RGDP got its slopes?

The economic state space: a mini-seminar

Statistics of shocks

Causal entropic forces as economic forces

Is the information equilibrium interest rate model wrong?

Efficient markets and the Challenger disaster

A vector of information equilibrium relationships

Using maximum entropy to select one of multiple equilibria

IE vs NY Fed DSGE model update

A trend towards lower inflation in Australia (IE prediction)

Did the ACA decrease unemployment?

Japan (lack of) inflation update

DSGE, part 5 (summary)

DSGE, part 4

Is information equilibrium silly?

DSGE, part 3 (stochastic interlude)

DSGE, part 2

DSGE, part 1

Log-linear form of a general information equilibrium model

The Economy at the End of the Universe, part II

The Economy at the End of the Universe

Economic temperature functions

Scopes and scales: the present value formula

The driving equilibrium

The monetary base continues to fall

RGDP and employment equilibria

Information equilibrium in neuroscience

An ensemble of labor markets

List of standard economics derived from information equilibrium

"A statistical equilibrium approach to the distribution of profit rates"

Ceteris paribus and method of nascent science

About that graph ...

Gronwall's inequality and information transfer

Summer blogging recess (and no-go theorems)

Metzler diagrams from information equilibrium

Stock flow accounting with calculus

Regime dependent modeling and the St. Louis Fed

What does it mean when we say money flows?

New CPI data, and an IE model gets rejected

Macroeconomists are weird about theory

The urban environment as information equilibrium

Unemployment equilibrium?

Sleight of hand with the regulator

Regulators

On IS-LM and scope

Economics is wrong, therefore (by analogy) physics is wrong

Falsifiable statements are not philosophical disagreements

SMD(H)

New economics: now with all new unfounded assumptions!

Modeling in physics versus modeling in economics

Monetarism's epistemological nightmare

The scales of sticky wages

Recognizing complexity by inspection

What happens when you push on a price?

Update of UK inflation prediction

Exit through the hyperinflation, redux

This is what confirmation bias looks like (minimum wage edition)

WWII price controls and models

I'm not sure we understand inflation

Lyapunov exponents and the information tranfer index

Lack of metastability

Doing economists' work, only better: interest rate edition

Where is the information encoded?

Remember everyone who said inflation had arrived in Japan?

A review of Cesar Hidalgo's Why Information Grows

So is science a science?

Blog birthday week continues: another successful prediction (GBP-EUR exchange rate)

Update to 2014 IT model inflation forecast vs NY Fed and FOMC

Blog birthday week continues: another successful prediction (EU inflation)

Celebrate this blog's birthday with a model prediction success story

What is wrong with economics in one chart

Math ≠ utility maximization

Happy birthday, blog!

Comparative advantage from maximum entropy

Please stop talking about how science works if you don't know

Angels dancing at the end of time

Neo-Fisherism and causality

Matthew Yglesias is still withholding the economic theory of everything

More on the Great Depression

Entropy and uncertainty

Is information equilibrium disruptive?

Different types of emergence

It's complicated: alternative approaches to economics

Maximum entropy distributions (reference)

List (2004) field experiments with random agents

Simulations with supply, demand and prices

People skills

Supply and demand experiments

The mathematics is not the issue here, Dude

Cognitive biases as epicycles for the rational agent

Economic imperialism?

Fiscal stimulus in the Great Depression

Affordable housing through increased supply?

There is no interpretation, only equation

Marvelous demonstration that this blog post is too narrow to contain

Growth state diagrams

Fairness = tendency to maximize entropy?

Does saving make sense?

Information equilibrium on the Wicksellian roundabout

Coordination and complexity

Traffic model on the Wicksellian roundabout

Effective information equilibrium theory

Interest rate and monetary base updates

Bernanke endorses policy recommednation of information equilibrium model

Some information transfer model basics

Information transfer as a common language for economics, part II

Information equilibrium: a common language for multiple schools

An RLC circuit with R = S and L = F

Empirical economics, a denouement

Waiting for a philosophy of economics

Economics doesn't need new theories; it needs to eliminate theories

New paradigms in economics assume the outcome of research

Crankitude

Japan's Phillips curve is also flattening

Goldilocks complexity

GDP in the UK

The previous post as a picture

The irony of microfoundations fundamentalism

Are the neo-Fisherites right?

Is it capital?

"Economics is a social science"

Overfitting and empirical data: qualitative and qualitative models

Derp genera

Scott Sumner writes down another information equilibrium model

The ITE guide to schools of economics

A quantity theory of labor and capital

If I was to teach Econ 101 ...

Is DSGE a framework?

The EMH and evaporating information

The entropy term and the unreasonable effectiveness of NGDP

Dropping out of BPE 2016

The unreasonable effectiveness of information transfer

Compare and contrast

I'm not quite dead, sir.

Information equilibrium and time series

Moderation and comment policy

More on stock-flow models

More like stock-flow inconsistent

Post Keynesian blues

Draft slides for BPE 2016 talk in DC

Animations of agents subject to a budget contraint

The interpreter

Power laws and information equilibrium

Break on through to the other side

The Great Recession changed how seasons work

Liquidity traps

Money money money

Odd behavior and effective budget constraints

Information equilibrium and transistors (updated)

Employment shocks as nominal output shocks

Implausible plausibility

IT model forecast update for Japan

Extreme nominal wage rigidity

The forecast's substrate: is Sanders condoning neoliberalism?

10% growthiness

The value of diversity and upward sloping supply curves

Recoveries do grow old; they just have an uncertain lifetime

All that has plasmon frequencies in the visible is not 197Au

As if: positive economics, evolution and effective theories

Fitness, trade-offs and macrofoundations

Flexible micro wages do not disprove sticky macro wages

One more physics analogy

Production possibilities and Brownian motion

Production possibilities and the slope of the supply curve

Economics is not logic and therefore not true or false

Computing Nash equilibria is intractable

The long and short of interest rates

The IS-LM model as an effective theory at low inflation

Thought experiment

Attainable definitions of equilibrium

Another win for the IT model: Switzerland edition

Economics is changing, but in what direction?

2006

Model forecast update: core PCE inflation

The BoJ's macroeconomic experiment

What is and isn't economics?

False dichotomy (as in: both choices are false)

Predictions and prediction markets

Nominal shocks in the presence of growth

Post-hike monetary base projection

Models and frameworks

It's people. The economy is made out of people.

The pinball theory of value

Economists should start calling them approximations

The slope of the Phillips curve is roughly zero

Is CPI an information-theoretic measure of labor force size?

I'm changing with my mind

The 10-year treasury

Maybe we should fall back on the least informative prior ...

Psych!

Maybe you should question your assumptions?

Paul Krugman's definition of economics assumes the form of the theory

Updates to some ongoing forecasts

Time for a trip to Vancouver for a little fiscal stimulus ...

Assuming answers to complex integrals

Possible slower adjustment for monetary base

What's with the pessimism?

Macroeconomics: a theoretical and empirical multiverse

Information, knowledge, models and the EMH

Complexity without purpose: evolution as a framework for economics

Occam's razor: real and nominal growth

Velocity of money and interest rates

More on scope

EFF ≈ 0.35%

Modls

The greatest trick

Turn and face the strange

It isn't obvious inflation is under the control of central banks

Top Feedly posts of 2015

Falsifiability isn't empirical validity

Only natural

On our way down ...

Maximum entropy versus coordination, part 10191

Draft paper for a talk this summer

#notallphysicists

Top three posts of 2015

Scott Sumner's latest information transfer model