The BoJ's macroeconomic experiment

Via Frances Coppola, we have the BoJ forecasts for CPI inflation through 2017, including the effect of the new "negative interest rate". First, we shouldn't forget this in assessing central banks' capabilities in this regard. For the IT model forecast for Japan, see here.

However, it looks like the BoJ isn't predicting anything too far outside the IT model range. Recall the IT model does as well as is possible on these medium range forecasts assuming month to month fluctuations are mostly measurement error (I called it irreducible measurement error here). I show the model prediction along with 2σ (95%) errors for annual core CPI inflation.

Also, according to the quantity theory of labor, Japan would have to have higher labor force growth to get 2% inflation.
Here's the original graph from the BoJ's report from 30 Jan 2016: