Sitemap - 2015 - Information Equilibrium
ZIRP is over ... let the experiment begin.
Who said macroeconomics isn't an experimental science?
Information theory 101 (information equilibrium edition)
An empirical validation of k - (k - 1) = 1
Abenomics or optical illusion?
Who has two thumbs and isn't stumped?
Switzerland's negative interest rates
The effect of a rate increase coming out of the Fed's Dec 2015 meeting
Scale invariance and constant returns to scale
Limit cycles versus avalanches
More of Draghi's open mouth operations
Some day my long run will come
Money is that which is conserved via a symmetry principle
By magic number, Nick Rowe means scale of the theory
Principal component = information equilibrium model?
Maximum entropy better than game theory (again)
Department of Huh? Rent control edition
The minimum wage in Info Econ 101
David Beckworth's inflation corridor
DSGE form of the IT model (active but not interactive)
DSGE form of the IT model (interactive)
Is there a difference between a monetary and a barter economy?
The housing bubble: a personal view
Does market monetarism exist in reaction to fiscal stimulus?
Scott Sumner doesn't understand other macro models
Matthew Yglesias moves the goalposts on Abenomics
The baby-sitting co-op as an information transfer model
Internal devaluation and the fluctuation theorem
Checking it twice (GDP and GDI)
Temporal shapes of discount factors and utility functions
Expecting more precision than possible
If a model result is silly, question the scope before questioning the model
The value premium and non-ideal information transfer
Are we no longer safe from a recession?
CPI inflation predictions and unwarranted speculation
Musical chairs and Taylor rules
Moral intuition versus logical intuition
Knowing less than we think: NGDP edition (corrected)
Do counterintuitive economic results make sense?
A uniform distribution arises ...
Is the endowment effect rational?
Draghi's open mouth operations
The paradigm dependence of the productivity slowdown
Utility maximization and crystal spheres
Can we extrapolate growth into the distant past?
The SMD theorem and ... oh, no ... not another physics analogy
Emergent representative agents: a means to an end
When is an intertemporal budget constraint a true budget constraint?
Potentially file under: thinking we know more than we do (corrected)
Gary Becker's emergent rational agents
The representative macro-theory agent differs from micro-theory agents
Deaton's paradox and the dimension of consumption space
Economics as and versus social science
Pegged interest rates = hyperinflation?
I hope Angus Deaton gets a chance to cancel out Tom Sargent
The global productivity frontier and dark matter
A random walk inside the simplex: unemployment and MINIMAC
Draft paper now a preprint on the arXiv
Utility maximization and entropy maximization
Trust is human capital that isn't excludable
Interest rate parity and neo-Fisherism
Causing you to do X versus giving you the option to do X
The contrapositive of the fallacy of composition
Corporate prediction markets aggregate random behavior
So many monetary policy shocks!
Mistakes, random behavior or complex behavior?
It doesn't feel like we're maximizing
We built this theory on scope conditions
Robert Waldmann buries the lede in comments
Economic forecasts are not similar to physical science forecasts
Prediction update: core PCE inflation
Information equilibrium and the taxation of capital
The Phillips curve and the information transfer index
A return to deflation in Japan wouldn't be out of the cards
The price revolution and non-ideal information transfer
The classical mechanics of Wicksell
Two deep looks into microfoundations
"the initial price move ... cannot itself be correct"
Hot potatoes and entropy; QE and inflation
Correctly predicting Eurozone lowflation
Gambling and information equilibrium
Misunderstanding inflation in the WSJ
The rest of that NGDP growth vs base growth graph
Thought experiments in alternate universes
Stuff measured by GDP and the emergent representative agent
Black-Scholes and information equilibrium
The emergent representative agent [1]
Predictions doing well after 18 months
Do NGDP futures markets already exist?
A different thermodynamic theory of money
What's wrong with Dani Rodrik's view of economics
Matthew Yglesias and the economic theory of everything
Machine learning and implicit theorizing
Information equilibrium and the gravity model of trade
Is human agency Noah's big unchallenged assumption?
Scott Sumner's information equilibrium model
Entropy is working for the weekend
Rational expectations and information theory
Information equilibrium as an economic principle
Employment doesn't depend on inflation
Comparison of interest rate predictions
The Dungeons and Dragons approach to economics
Interest rates and predictions
Giant molecules and representative agents
Are higher interest rates inflationary?
A trivial maximum entropy model and the quantity theory
Comparing methodologies (monetary base and short term interest rates)
Granger causality is an information equilibrium model
Definitions: information and effective
Obviously E. coli is a rational utility maximizer
Nonlinear Signals of Unusual Size (NSUS's)
Information transfer models and communication channels
Statistical significance is not model correctness
Model prediction holding up for Japan as well
Comparing NGDP predictions with results
Updated graphics for the entropic hot potato effect
Random utility discrete choice models, partition functions and information theory
Biologists' unoriginal and misguided ideas about economics
Kaldor, endogenous money and information transfer
Resolving the paradox of fiat money
Compressed sensing, information theory and economics
Implicit models: minimum wage and maximum entropy
Maybe Paul Romer would be interested in information equilibrium?
Scott, the serious flaw is expectations
Is economics just a collection of names?
Macro-finacial economics puzzles: 3 out of 10 ain't bad
Paul Krugman's definition of a liquidity trap
The Euler equation as a maximum entropy condition
The importance of transversality conditions (more on the Ramsey model)
Always look at the data (Keynesian economics edition)
Ramsey model and the unstable equilibrium of a pendulum
The quantity theory of money as an ensemble average
Ignoring the flexibility, prices are rigid
Is information transfer economics hard?
Forecasts from the new Bank of England blog
Still angry about Sumner's analytical garbage
Scott Sumner fails to read third sentence of his own blog post
3/4 of a knife, 3/4 of a fork and 3/4 of a spoon
Growth and the business cycle in the information transfer model
Mathiness is next to growthiness (the 4% solution)
The definition, origin and purpose of money
Economics really needs a framework
Euler's theorem and non-ideal information transfer
You forgot to use my model: the non-case of Icelandic austerity
Counterfactuals and the second derivative
Euler's theorem, rival inputs and distinguishable particles
Exchange rates and irrational markets
Maximum entropy and the 'natural rate' of unemployment
Adam Smith's circular logic and path dependence in economic theory
MINIMAC as an information equilibrium model
It's only a crisis if there's no foundation
Sumner is confused about Australia; I am not
Falsifiabilité, simplicité, succès ... ou la mort.
NGDP targeting is roughly the same as inflation targeting
Does a liquidity trap ever end?
Interface control documents and crashing satellites
Perfect storm or just-so story?
Celebrating 500 posts with a predictive success
NY Fed DSGE model predictions are not doing well
The mathematical properties of information equilibrium
2015 Q1 NGDP revised downward ...
Resolving the Cambridge capital controvery with abstract algebra
The basic asset pricing equation as a maximum entropy condition
Paul Romer feels misunderstood
Dynamics of the savings rate and Solow + IS-LM
Frameworks and the Bohr model analogy
Graphical version of my view of mathiness
Prescott and Lucas aren't Romer's problem
The irony of Paul Romer's mathiness
Cobb and Douglas didn't have changing TFP, and Is TFP entropy?
The UK: another case of "productivity problems" where they don't exist
Mathiness and the Solow production function
Solow production function and nominal values
Money defined as information mediation
Homo economicus and the Platonic ideal
The economic allocation problem
Exchange rates and monetary policy
I'm not sure Noah Smith understands the "physics envy" charge
On the use of hypotheses: or, what do you get when you assume non-ergodicity?
Japan's cash economy and the liquidity trap
Equilibrium in the economic potential picture
Utility maximization, matching and information equilibrium
The new NGDP numbers are here ...
Economic potentials or: How to define an economy
How not to apply math and physics to economics
Do macro models need a financial sector?
Diamond-Dybvig as a maximum entropy model
Micro stickiness versus macro stickiness
Macro prices are sticky, not micro prices
There's no natural constituency for information equilibrium
Thinking positive is thinking different
All models are wrong, but some are tedious
Information theory and economics, a primer
Incentives are an entropic force
Prediction markets, trends and models
Mark Thoma, information equilibrium is the model you're looking for
Solving the dark matter problem
What does the AD-AS model mean?
Towards an information equilibrium take on the Lucas Islands model
Will the UK be the first to exit the Great Recession?
The microfoundations straitjacket
Monetary regime change in the UK?
The Keynesian part of Abenomics is the part that works
Non-ideal information transfer, tail risks and news shocks
Potential RGDP and forecast RGDP
The Wicksellian roundabout and entropy
The slowly variying information transfer index approximation
FRB shifts projections by one year, calls it a day
Entropy and the Walrasian auctioneer
Nominal rigidity is an entropic force
Utility in an information equilibrium model
The price system as a communication channel
Most recent updates to core CPI and core PCE inflation
Noah, information equilibrium is the theory you're looking for
The latest PCE inflation numbers are out ...
The hot potato effect is an entropic force
Theories of identities are nonsensical; information equilibrium conditions are better
Information equilibrium is an equivalence relation
Sumner to quantitative analysis: drop dead
Market monetarism and the Keynesian beauty contest
Do the different market models work simultaneously?
Jaynes on entropy in economics
Information equilibrium paper (draft) (macroeconomics)
Why do macroeconomists think they know what it's like to be a physicist?
Information equilibrium paper (draft) (introduction and outline)
A Socratic dialog on the simple model of information equilibrium
Why focus on supply and demand?
A simple example of information equilibrium
Market monetarism: Quicker, easier, more seductive
Scott Sumner's contentless theory
The Fed seems over-optimistic on inflation
What if US inflation had been 2% since the 1960s?
Is the demand curve shaped by human behavior? How can we tell?
This is why sociologists think economists are arrogant
Lee Smolin's take on Arrow-Debreu
How do you measure the price level?
Keynesian economics in three graphs
I'm not sure economists understand supply and demand
A Socratic dialog on information equilibrium in economics
Scottish enlightenment photoblogging
Is this the market monetarist model?
Powerful evidence for the information transfer model
Floating the Swiss Franc won't change the price level
I strongly disagree with what you are talking about
I have no idea what you are talking about
The new CPI numbers are here! The new CPI numbers are here!
Solving the identification problem via information equilibrium
Switzerland depreciated their currency and still had deflation
Targeting NGDP is awesome (if only it worked)
Some discussion of the information transfer traffic model
Updates for Japan (and a major correction)
NGDP predictions and the new normal
What did I miss? — Comments on the work of others
Caught between the 3-month and 10-year interest rate
Two parameters vs twenty-nine (a prediction update)