Better than Fed

Hopefully restore some of my credibility in the wake of messing up the Japan model, here's how the information transfer model is doing relative to the Federal Reserve Board's prediction. I added some annual averages as thick dotted curves -- however be aware the annual average doesn't include the final inflation number or GDP number from 2014 (so the average is subject to revision). Anyway, here is the inflation prediction:

And here is the RGDP prediction:

Note that the differences between the red solid curve and the thick dotted curves appears to be due to data revisions.