More of Draghi's open mouth operations

So the ECB made some comments and the Euro exchange rate jumped. OMG the FT is onit! Here's data from Bloomberg:

Well, actually, the exchange rate is now where it dropped to back in October when it was considered a loosening monetary policy:

So monetary policy is now as loose as it was on October 22 ...

The thing is that the exchange rate should fall on bad economic news (evaluated relative to the US for the Euro-dollar rate) since bad economic news should mean lower AD (relative to the US continuing along its path). The Euro-dollar exchange rate could also fall if the US was doing better than the EU.
Chalk it up to another case where markets are operating under a mistaken theory.

Update:

Here's the IT model using M2 (in the footnote) (today's move is in black):

Nice Gaussian residuals ...