Sitemap - 2017 - Information Equilibrium
Checking some long term market forecasts against data
18 signs you are not having a productive conversation about economics
Emergence, rationality, and human behavior
Dynamic information equilibrium model of initial claims
How is the CPI forecast holding up?
How is the civilian labor force participation forecast holding up?
Another unemployment rate forecast comparison
Latest unemployment numbers and structural unemployment
Does increased compensation cause increased productivity?
Comparing the S&P 500 forecast to data (update)
Comparing my inflation forecasts to data
Dynamic information equilibrium: world population since the neolithic
Dynamic information equilibrium: UK CPI
Numerical experiments and the paths to scientific validity
The "bottom up" inflation fallacy
Unemployment rate step response over time
New CPI data and forecast horizons
Interest rates and dynamic equilibrium
A new Beveridge curve or, Science is Awesome
Presentation: forecasting with information equilibrium
Checking my forecast performance: unemployment rate
Can a macro model be good for policy, but not for forecasting?
Another forecast compared to data
Forecast head-to-head performance (and looking back)
Corporate taxes and unscientific economists
In the right frame, economies radically simplify
10 year interest rate forecasts in the US and UK
Social constructs are social constructs
Bitcoin model fails usefulness criterion
Dynamic equilibrium: US prime age population
JOLTS leading indicators update
Compressed sensing and the information bottleneck
(Prime age) civilian labor force participation data
The price mechanism as information bottleneck
The price mechanism and the information bottleneck
Checking in on an inflation forecast
Different unemployment rates do not contain different information
Was the Phillips curve due to women entering the workforce?
Mutual information and information equilibrium
My introductory chapter on economics
Dynamic equilibrium versus the Federal Reserve
Information, real, nominal, and Solow
Ideal and non-ideal information transfer and demand curves
Marking my S&P 500 forecast to market
The long trend in energy consumption
Search and matching II: theory
Search and matching I: methodology
Random agents: one tool in the toolbox
Markups, productivity, and maximum entropy
Demand curves under the microscope
Bitcoin (fork) and SP500 forecast model updates
Random agents and political identity
Date update: civilian labor force
Recession detection algorithm: update
Who has two thumbs and a really great long term interest rate model?
Forecast updates and more: IE versus Fed DSGE model
A random physicist takes on economics: Out now!
Dynamic equilibrium in average hourly wages
More updates to the python IEtools
Great Recession timing by state
The unchallenged assumption of human agency in economics
Economics criticism as art criticism
The unrealistic assumptions of information equilibrium
Dynamic equilibrium and ensembles (and collected results)
Adding race and gender to macroeconomics
Macro ensembles and factors of production
Self-similarity in dynamic equilibrium
Updating Samuelson's family tree ...
A dynamic equilibrium history of the United States
Causality in money and inflation ... plus some big questions
What mathematical theory is for
UK Unemployment 1860-1915 (dynamic equilibrium model)
Dynamic equilibrium model: CPI (all items)
Presentation: macroeconomics and ensembles
Unemployment 1929-1968 (dynamic equilibrium model)
Does information equilibrium add information?
Racial disparities in the unemployment rate
Dynamic equilibrium: unemployment in Hong Kong
Self-similarity of macro and micro
Barriers to entry in the quantitative parable industry
Forecast stability (unemployment rate edition)
Information transfer economics FAQ (reference post)
Wasserstein GAN and information equilibrium
Today's Fed decision and recession indicators
Consumption, income, and wealth
Milton Friedman's question begging
Unemployment forecasts: May data update
Emergence and over-selling information theory
Civilian labor force participation and inflation
Dynamic equilibrium and the bitcoin exchange rate
Checking in on some forecasts of core PCE inflation
Scale invariance and wealth distributions
More on Hayek and information theory
Principal component analysis of state unemployment rates
Explore more about information equilibrium
Theory and evidence in science versus economics
Government spending and receipts: a dynamic equilibrium?
Dynamic equilibrium in employment-population ratio in OECD countries
"You're wrong because I define it differently"
Labor force dynamic equilibrium
Mathiness in modern monetary theory
The reason for the proliferation of macro models?
Updated finance fortune-telling
High dimensional budget constraints and economic growth
Update to the predicted path of NGDP
What will the GDP number be tomorrow?
Falsehoods scientists believe about economics
Should the left engage with neoclassical economics?
Dynamic equilibrium: rental vacancy rate
This "working paper" is now four years old
Good ideas do not need lots of invalid arguments in order to gain public acceptance
Economics to physics phrasebook
Housing prices over the long run (are we in a boom?)
Growth regimes, lowflation, and dynamic equilibrium
A tour of information equilibrium
Organization of information equilibrium concepts
Dynamic equilibrium in occupational classes
It's a production input. No, it's a market good. Relax, it's both.
Is economics scientific? A short play in one act.
Determining recessions with an algorithm
The price adjustment equation and information equilibrium
Lecture on effective field theory
Unemployment rate (conditional) forecast update
Macrohistory database: more principal component analysis
Productivity, growth, and Verdoorn's law
Macroeconomics has no equilibrium data
The recovery and using models to frame data
Explaining versus defining (models vs model definitions)
Mainstream macro is the worst form of macro, except for all those other forms
"Improved" quantity theory of labor and capital
The mystery of Japan's inflation
Three centuries of dynamic equilibria in the UK
The "quantity theory of labor" and dynamic equilibrium
India's demonetization and model scope
Using PCA to remove cyclical effects
Belarus and effective theories
Washington's unemployment rate, Seattle's minimum wage, and dynamic equilibrium
The Fed raised interest rates today, oh boy
Principal component analysis of jobs data
How do you know if you're researching in bad faith? A handy checklist.
Models: predictions and prediction failures
S&P 500 forecast versus data: March update
Comparing the unemployment forecast to the March data
Academic norms and the Charles Murray incident
Ecological fallacy and emergent dynamics
Dynamic equilibrium: the price of gold (and oil)
NAIRU and other connections between inflation and employment
Generative adversarial networks and information equilibrium
Invariance and deep properties
Qualitative analysis done right, part 2b
Behavioral Euler equations and non-ideal information transfer
Dynamic equilibrium: Australia's unemployment rate
A bit more on the IT index (technical)
Qualitative economics done right, part 2a
Added some models to the repository ...
Information equilibrium code repositories
All information equilibrium, all the time
Qualitative economics done right, part 2
The lack of uniqueness of Arrow-Debreu equilibria
Randomly generated economies (a work in progress)
Qualitative economics done right, part 1
Worthwhile Canadian prediction comes true
Heterogeneous labor supply shocks
Monetary base and interest rate forecast updates
A desired wealth to income ratio as a dynamic equilibrium
Housing prices and dynamic equilibrium
Matching theory and employment in information equilibrium
Roger Farmer's post-Keynesian gambit
An inflation forecast comparison update
Dynamic equilibrium (presentation)
Explaining the better wisdom of crowds
Dynamic equilibrium: employment population ratio
Dynamic equilibrium in an agent based model?
The economy of the United Kingdom
Nick Rowe's view of the AD/AS model
A good series on macro and microfoundations
Curve fitting and relevant complexity
Consumption, income, and the PIH
Dynamic unemployment equilibrium: Japan edition
Dynamic unemployment equilibrium: Eurozone edition
Dynamic equilibrium: unemployment rate
A dynamic equilibrium in JOLTS data?
With an unbiased prior, market failure is the most likely outcome
Behavior, institutions, and other modeling assumptions
Complex systems versus complicated systems
An updated unemployment rate projection