Labor force dynamic equilibrium
Employment data comes out tomorrow and I have some forecasts that will be "marked to market" (here's the previous update). If the unemployment rate continues to fall, then we're probably not seeing the leading edge of a recession.
I thought I'd add a look at the civilian labor force with the dynamic equilibrium model:
In this picture, we have just two major events over the last ~70 years in the macroeconomy: women entering the workforce and the Great Recession (where people left the workforce). This is the same general picture for inflation and output (see also here). Everything else is a fluctuation.
We'll get a new data point for this series tomorrow as well, so here's a zoomed-in version of the most recent data:
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Update 5 May 2017
Here's that unemployment rate number. It's looking like the no-recession conditional forecast is the better one:
