Sitemap - 2018 - Information Equilibrium
Dynamic equilibrium model forecast performance: PCE inflation
CPI forecast performance over the past two years
My neglected Nikkei 225 forecast
The last employment situation report of 2018
Ambiguous histories: productivity
I don't trust Granger causality
Unions, inequality, and labor share
I'll say similar things for half the salary
Construction hiring, the Great Recession, and the ARRA
An information equilibrium history of the Great Recession
Unemployment: forecasts and reality
Comparing my S&P 500 forecast to observations
New Zealand's 2% inflation target
The CBO forecasts unemployment (and so do I)
Labor force participation and unemployment
Are consumption, income, and GDP different measures?
Wage growth data from the Atlanta Fed
Interest rates and model scope
Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast performance
Unemployment continues to decline — why?
Extended JOLTS hires series (and a 2014 mini-boom)
Dynamic equilibrium: flow from unemployed to employed
Comparing to Fed forecasts from 2014
Forecasting the Great Recession: the unemployment rate
Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.9%
Labor day! ... and declining union membership
Successfully forecast over 1½ years of S&P 500 data
UK interest rate model performance
Dynamic equilibrium: inflation forecast update
Shifts and drifts of the Beveridge curve
Something has changed in long term unemployment
JOLTS data and the counterfactual 2019 recession update
Validating forecasts: unemployment rate edition
Interest rates, yield curves, and debt growth
Wage growth versus employment-population ratio
NGDP data and validating forecasts
Does accelerating debt growth cause recessions?
Rental vacancy data versus forecast
DSGE Battle Royale: Christiano v. Stiglitz
One purpose of information theory
Wage growth (and finishing out bitcoin)
July update of CPI (with June data)
Counterfactual 2019 recession update (JOLTS data)
Unemployment up to 4.0% (but still consistent with forecast)
PCE inflation and checking forecast validity
Yield curve inversion and a future recession
Q: When is bad methodology fine?
[Insert new approach to economics] isn't empirical
Wage growth showing signs of a downward shock
Explaining recessions with definitions?
CPI inflation forecast from 2017 still going strong
Women in the workforce and labor share
JOLTS data and the "2019" recession
Unemployment rate time series is on trend
Vacancy yield and labor market analysis
Inflation and the labor force in Japan
Women in the workforce and investment
Market & business cycle forecasts: update
A list of macro meta-narratives
UK productivity and data interpretation
Labor force participation and wages: latest data
Macro criticism, but not that kind
Gender differences in unemployment
Validating my CPI inflation forecast
Labor force participation and gravity waves
Thinking like a physicist: MaxEnt edition
Recessions and special snowflakes
Robots versus shipping containers
Down, down, down: the unemployment rate
Three sigma deviation in the 10-year rate
No one saw this coming: Bezemer's misleading paper
Comparing my forecasts to VARs
Are prices transmitting or destroying information?
New GDP numbers and validating some forecasts
Info Eq and commonalities in successful Econ (+ gravity models)
We've got five years, what a surprise
Tractability for tractability's sake?
Yes, I've read Duncan Foley. Have you?
JOLTS forecasts and leading indicators update
Employment situation forecasts compared to latest data
Labor force decline in the US relative to other OECD countries is mostly about women
Overshooting: bitcoin case study
Effective information in complex models of the economy
Fed revises its projections (again)
Okun's law and the labor force
Why I dislike the map metaphor in economics
Black labor force participation
CPI data and the end of "lowflation"
New forecast comparisons to track (US output and inflation)
Vestigial monetarism: Japan edition
Validating employment situation forecasts
Trends in macro observables: twitter talk and pdf download
Economic growth in Australia 1960-present
Dynamic equilibrium model: fertility as a leading indicator
Shock cluster analysis and some new visualizations
Forecast performance of a quantity theory of labor
Women in the workforce and the Solow paradox
Dynamic equilibrium in wage growth
Are interest rates inexplicably high?
Comparing CPI forecasts to data
Some historical myths about Einstein and relativity
Economic seismograms: labor and financial markets
What is the chance of seeing deviations in three JOLTS measures?
JOLTS data ... and that market crash?
Long term exercises in hubris: forecasting the S&P 500
African American unemployment spike
Unemployment and labor force participation (models vs data)
When did we become gluten intolerant?
Economic growth, path dependence, and non-equilibrium shocks
Losing my vestigial monetarism
Another successful forecast (NGDP)
(A bad) dynamic equilibrium: homelessness in Seattle
Money is the aether of macroeconomics
What to theorize when your theory's rejected
Immigration is a major source of growth
Labor shortages reported by firms
Qualitative economics done right, part 3
Labor market update: comparing forecasts to data
Structural breaks, volatility regimes, and dynamic equilibrium