Long term exercises in hubris: forecasting the S&P 500
I've been tracking the S&P 500 forecast made with the dynamic information equilibrium model. The latest mini-boom and subsequent fall are still within the normal fluctuations of the market:
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the massive giveaway to corporations in the latest Republican tax cut didn't in fact constitute a "shock" (dashed line in the graph above). Also relevant: the multi-scale self-similarity of the S&P 500Â in terms of dynamic equilibrium.
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Update 5 February 2018
Ha!
Also, the close today brings us almost exactly back to the dynamic equilibrium:
Also bitcoin continues to fall (this is not a forecast, but rather a model description):
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Update 26 February 2018
Continued update of S&P 500 and bitcoin:
