Hopefully restore some of my credibility in the wake of messing up the Japan model, here's how the information transfer model is doing relative to the Federal Reserve Board's prediction. I added some annual averages as thick dotted curves -- however be aware the annual average doesn't include the final inflation number or GDP number from 2014 (so the average is subject to revision). Anyway, here is the inflation prediction:
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Better than Fed
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Hopefully restore some of my credibility in the wake of messing up the Japan model, here's how the information transfer model is doing relative to the Federal Reserve Board's prediction. I added some annual averages as thick dotted curves -- however be aware the annual average doesn't include the final inflation number or GDP number from 2014 (so the average is subject to revision). Anyway, here is the inflation prediction: