So I'm continuing to track the 10-year interest rate forecast from nearly 3 years ago. While the forecast did well before the 2016 election, today we're above a 3-sigma deviation from the estimated model error (the 99.9% percentile, or 1 in 1000). Of course with nearly 800 data points, we might expect to see at least *one* 3-sigma event. A similar deviation happened in the early 80s (Sep 1981 to Jun 1982) making this the second period of such a deviation.
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Three sigma deviation in the 10-year rate
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So I'm continuing to track the 10-year interest rate forecast from nearly 3 years ago. While the forecast did well before the 2016 election, today we're above a 3-sigma deviation from the estimated model error (the 99.9% percentile, or 1 in 1000). Of course with nearly 800 data points, we might expect to see at least *one* 3-sigma event. A similar deviation happened in the early 80s (Sep 1981 to Jun 1982) making this the second period of such a deviation.