The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast the unemployment rate over the next ten years back in April 2018. Their model (blue dashed line segments) is a pretty standard "natural rate"-like (equilibrium rate) model where unemployment has some non-zero equilibrium level (here, about 4.8%) it would eventually reach (shown in the graph above). However, nothing analogous to the path they propose nor the equilibrium level it sustains has ever been observed in