The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data came out today, and as this measure is informationally equivalent to NGDP but available more frequently I thought I'd take a look at the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) to see what we should expect for Q2 GDP — I noticed something (click to enlarge and maybe you'll see it better):
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TCJA and PCE growth
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The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data came out today, and as this measure is informationally equivalent to NGDP but available more frequently I thought I'd take a look at the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM) to see what we should expect for Q2 GDP — I noticed something (click to enlarge and maybe you'll see it better):