The latest employment situation data came out today, and putting it in the context of various vintages of the FRBSF forecasts and the single (now two year old) vintage of the dynamic information equilibrium model (that was spot on) we can see that what was once FRBSF's pessimism in the future unemployment rate became an over-correction to optimism:
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Now Fed forecasts are too optimistic!
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The latest employment situation data came out today, and putting it in the context of various vintages of the FRBSF forecasts and the single (now two year old) vintage of the dynamic information equilibrium model (that was spot on) we can see that what was once FRBSF's pessimism in the future unemployment rate became an over-correction to optimism: