Here's the update of the predictions last updated here. The big story is that the monetary base isn't following my assumed counterfactual as well as it had been, which means that short term interest rates should start to be a bit higher than the predictions ... and sure enough, they seem to be on their way up.
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Not bad for five parameters, take two
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Here's the update of the predictions last updated here. The big story is that the monetary base isn't following my assumed counterfactual as well as it had been, which means that short term interest rates should start to be a bit higher than the predictions ... and sure enough, they seem to be on their way up.