2 Comments
User's avatar
Ish hatipoglu's avatar

Kind of similar to 1948-1950 scenario. Huge supply shock from a war like scenario where govs locked down huge parts of the economy. Pent up demand finally released leading to inflation, but with gov sector stepping back and rates going up a recession happened basically straight after but was pretty mild.

Expand full comment
Jason Smith's avatar

That would make another analogy between post-war and post-pandemic return to work (with unemployment this time) — inflation seems to be driven mostly by labor force entry/re-entry whether post-war demobilization, women entering the workforce, or pandemic return to work. That inflation can fade without greatly raising unemployment.

Expand full comment