The latest JOLTS data was released today for the US labor market; the last time I updated the forecasts/recession counterfactuals was here. There's not much to say except that the flattening of the job openings rate continues along with the correlated deviations from the model in the other measures (hires, quits, separations) indicating the start of a possible recession. Here are the graphs (post-forecast data in black) showing both the no-shock and recession shock counterfactuals. Click for the full resolution versions.