Another month, another JOLTS data release. However it looks like this time I can with a certain level of confidence say that the "2019" recession [1] is underway. It's still not as visible in the hires or quits data (only as biased model error), but job openings (vacancies) are definitely showing a deviation. Job openings appears to have lead the early 2000s recession (but that conclusion is uncertain as JOLTS data is only available from December 2000). Since this is a bold prediction, let me show the updates for all the JOLTS data series I've been watching. Click to enlarge the images.
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JOLTS data and the "2019" recession
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Another month, another JOLTS data release. However it looks like this time I can with a certain level of confidence say that the "2019" recession [1] is underway. It's still not as visible in the hires or quits data (only as biased model error), but job openings (vacancies) are definitely showing a deviation. Job openings appears to have lead the early 2000s recession (but that conclusion is uncertain as JOLTS data is only available from December 2000). Since this is a bold prediction, let me show the updates for all the JOLTS data series I've been watching. Click to enlarge the images.