I realized I forgot to apply the same adjustment to the error I applied here [1] to the result here [2]. In the graph at the second link [2], I show the expected error in the monthly PCE inflation values -- but the FRB/US model is quarterly. So here is the same graph with the expected quarterly error:
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Jason versus the Fed (update)
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I realized I forgot to apply the same adjustment to the error I applied here [1] to the result here [2]. In the graph at the second link [2], I show the expected error in the monthly PCE inflation values -- but the FRB/US model is quarterly. So here is the same graph with the expected quarterly error: