I got a request to run the model for China in an email from Jonathan Prince, so here it is. I half expected to get nonsensical results; the "conventional wisdom" in the US is that Chinese statistics are suspect (see here for example). However, after running the model using data from FRED (derived from OECD and IMF data), it turns out that aside from potentially understating inflation in the late 90s/early 2000s, the results for China are largely in line with other countries. Here are the NGDP-M0 and P-M0 plots I've been showing lately with China added:
Chinese statistics seem just fine
Chinese statistics seem just fine
Chinese statistics seem just fine
I got a request to run the model for China in an email from Jonathan Prince, so here it is. I half expected to get nonsensical results; the "conventional wisdom" in the US is that Chinese statistics are suspect (see here for example). However, after running the model using data from FRED (derived from OECD and IMF data), it turns out that aside from potentially understating inflation in the late 90s/early 2000s, the results for China are largely in line with other countries. Here are the NGDP-M0 and P-M0 plots I've been showing lately with China added: