A little over a year ago, I said that the JOLTS Job Openings Rate (JOR) data was indicating a possible recession in the 2019-2020 time frame based on the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM). It appears that even if there is a recession in 2020, this "forecast" will not have been accurate. This post is a "post mortem" for that failed forecast looking at various factors that I think provides some interesting insights.
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Calling a recession too early (and…
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A little over a year ago, I said that the JOLTS Job Openings Rate (JOR) data was indicating a possible recession in the 2019-2020 time frame based on the dynamic information equilibrium model (DIEM). It appears that even if there is a recession in 2020, this "forecast" will not have been accurate. This post is a "post mortem" for that failed forecast looking at various factors that I think provides some interesting insights.