From Russia with love

Commenter Tom came over for a visit to this blog through a link at Marginal Revolution. Among his objections to the information transfer model included the scenario where Russia experienced inflation with the expansion of its monetary base while the US did not experience inflation with its expansion. However, this is exactly the kind of thing the information transfer model explains. Russia appears on the left side of this graph, where the slope of the curves P(M0) and NGDP(M0) is much greater:

Russia is still on the "quantity theory" side of the graph, not the "liquidity trap" side (the right hand side). Here are the fit to the price level and the information transfer index, for reference (the lack of NGDP data for Russia before 2003 limits the range over which I could test the model):

I show the GDP deflator, CPI and CPI less food in the graph above.